(Click for larger image)
(Click for larger image)
Here are the 100 year results of a simulation using a fixed-width of 400 m:
(Click for larger image)
Here are the 100 year results of a variable-width simulation:
(Click for larger image)
Different combinations of the various simulation parameters (e.g. width, depth, flow, bottom composition, integration distances, etc...) can yield an enormous variation in river shape. Some of the configurations are quite 'wild':
I can also plot, using colors from red to green to blue, how long the river stays in any one place as it moves across the valley during 100 years:
For this study, however, I am interested in more realistic simulations that are fairly 'tame':
These simulated rivers don't necessarily travel very far during 100 years, depending on their erosion rates:
I can also plot how much surface area and sediment the river erodes from the valley, and where:
Simulations also accumulate statistics about the river length, its sinuosity ('curviness') at different scales, and cumulative coverage area and total erosion:
Everything considered, I am looking for simulations that resemble the river as it was 100 years ago, before human intervention and management began to change and constrain its shape:
(Click for larger image)
The 'simple' models I am using cannot generate the specific detail which is unique to this river (including multiple channels, 'braiding', chutes, islands, and sand bars), but by performing a large number (3000+) of simulations using slightly different input parameters, I can generate a diversity of river shapes and dynamics that, all together, approximate what I think the river might do during the next 100 years:
I can then accumulate the results from all simulations into a database in order to sort and search the data to extract specific examples of river behavior (such as the greatest and least lengths or erosion rates), or to draw conclusions from trends in the behavior (e.g. relationships between 2 or more variables such as erosion and length):
Reading: runs.rsq...
1064 entries read
Sorted by maximum erate - top 5 entries:
erate length file avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0 avwidth cArea eArea
---------------- ---------------- ------------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
10.922526 245477.926265 iMac/test0143.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963 424.173739 795.000000 163167.446220
8.472486 191130.990917 iMac/test0134.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1200.000000 1.250000 3.600004 417.767380 601.750000 100806.430656
7.848543 215845.829969 iMac/test0137.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 0.750000 3.599998 419.904026 643.250000 89514.967841
7.526362 191231.410205 iMac/test0287.mnrr 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599978 438.686099 566.750000 90986.196976
7.320121 208266.307233 iMac/test0140.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.000000 3.600050 421.976723 666.250000 90319.841395
Sorted by maximum erate - bottom 5 entries:
erate length file avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0 avwidth cArea eArea
---------------- ---------------- ------------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
0.804644 159230.555238 iMac/test0291.mnrr 433.661987 3.250000 0.000500 800.000000 1.000000 1.200000 439.570373 222.500000 12247.120470
0.798773 151794.928451 iMac/test0435.mnrr 433.661987 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 1.000000 1.200000 439.896821 219.000000 11878.577970
0.798249 146177.679480 iMac/test0441.mnrr 433.661987 3.500000 0.000500 1000.000000 0.750000 1.200000 437.219222 205.750000 10610.426920
0.770893 149729.319793 iMac/test0288.mnrr 433.661987 3.250000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000 438.551614 208.250000 10789.492193
0.717024 148776.993226 iMac/test0432.mnrr 433.661987 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000 439.055634 204.500000 10465.896728
Loading from runs.rsq
2615 entries read
Sorted by total length - 2615 entries:
i totalLength length cArea eArea erate file avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ------------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 776135.792425 245477.926265 795.000000 163167.446220 10.922526 iMac/test0143.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963
2 662674.920443 236444.152114 562.000000 87620.147731 5.390537 iMac/test0404.mnrr 433.661987 3.250000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600008
3 649278.177699 194657.363285 562.250000 95463.515039 6.548363 iMac/test0116.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600012
4 637204.392931 224838.845225 553.750000 88507.424776 6.000637 iMac/test0260.mnrr 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.599987
5 575770.123505 223716.055261 607.750000 92588.754283 6.692613 iMac/test0269.mnrr 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1000.000000 1.250000 3.600025
6 562917.536209 200232.526957 518.500000 79182.722680 5.512574 iMac/test0080.mnrr 433.661987 2.750000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 3.599996
7 562072.148419 210579.351213 566.000000 81699.705390 5.661451 iMac/test0692.mnrr 494.557565 2.750000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600015
8 557355.215112 235817.205567 571.500000 82177.456456 6.000770 iMac/test0413.mnrr 433.661987 3.250000 0.001250 1000.000000 1.250000 3.599998
9 542722.996488 177337.773194 494.000000 72671.936247 5.353781 iMac/test0224.mnrr 433.661987 3.000000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 3.599996
10 537046.222635 183716.166324 471.750000 69006.385026 4.722043 iMac/test0548.mnrr 433.661987 3.500000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600011
...
r = 0.334147, r = 0.485051, r = 0.453311
r = 0.921904, r = 0.922270, r = 0.963438
The aggregate results, although completely deterministic in nature, can provide a probabilistic interpretation of what the actual river might do, and where it might go, during 100 years:
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