(Click for larger image)
As of the end of October, all river simulations --a total of 3612-- have been completed. This is considerably in excess of the 1000 runs I had hoped to perform several months ago. 3072 simulations were performed using the Johannesson-Parker meandering model, and another 540 were then performed using the simpler Circumferential Speed method (in which the excess speed fraction is equal to sigma in the JP model) for use as a comparison to the JP results.
Here is the final 100 year coverage for the JP runs. This array can be overlayed on either the topographic map or satellite image mosaics, and can be drawn with any opacity between 0 and 1:
(Click for larger image)
(Click for larger image)
Here are the coverages at 0, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 years:
(Click for larger image)
Here is the final average erosion (in ha per 0.25 km^2):
(Click for larger image)
As before, the database can be used to select specific rivers --here the longest and shortest, longest and shortest including cutoffs, highest and lowest erosion rates, and greatest and least area coverage (many of which are the same river):
Loading from runs.rsq
3072 entries read
Sorting by length...
Top 5 entries:
i file length avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0191.mnrr 245477.926265 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963
2 run0375.mnrr 242306.678435 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1400.000000 0.750000 3.600000
3 run0539.mnrr 236444.152114 433.661987 3.250000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600008
4 run0551.mnrr 235817.205567 433.661987 3.250000 0.001250 1000.000000 1.250000 3.599998
5 run0327.mnrr 234978.637504 433.661987 3.000000 0.001000 1400.000000 0.750000 3.599993
Bottom 5 entries:
i file length avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run2987.mnrr 125995.557520 596.127845 3.500000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 3.600002
2 run2319.mnrr 124709.513316 596.127845 2.750000 0.000500 1000.000000 0.750000 3.600000
3 run2551.mnrr 123554.555611 596.127845 3.000000 0.000750 800.000000 1.000000 3.599996
4 run0679.mnrr 122863.106785 433.661987 3.500000 0.001000 800.000000 1.000000 3.600003
5 run3035.mnrr 121111.733427 596.127845 3.500000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.599996
Sorting by totalLength...
Top 5 entries:
i file totalLength avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0191.mnrr 776135.792425 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963
2 run0539.mnrr 662674.920443 433.661987 3.250000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600008
3 run0155.mnrr 649278.177699 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.600012
4 run0347.mnrr 637204.392931 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 800.000000 1.250000 3.599987
5 run0359.mnrr 575770.123505 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1000.000000 1.250000 3.600025
Bottom 5 entries:
i file totalLength avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run2340.mnrr 132885.307239 596.127845 2.750000 0.000500 1400.000000 0.750000 1.200002
2 run3024.mnrr 132281.982556 596.127845 3.500000 0.001250 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
3 run2976.mnrr 130642.757137 596.127845 3.500000 0.001000 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
4 run2928.mnrr 127935.465352 596.127845 3.500000 0.000750 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
5 run2880.mnrr 126171.706677 596.127845 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
Sorting by erate...
Top 5 entries:
i file erate avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0191.mnrr 10.922526 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963
2 run0179.mnrr 8.472486 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1200.000000 1.250000 3.600004
3 run0183.mnrr 7.848543 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 0.750000 3.599998
4 run0383.mnrr 7.526362 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599978
5 run0959.mnrr 7.511476 494.557565 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599955
Bottom 5 entries:
i file erate avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run2112.mnrr 0.666959 548.391695 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
2 run2881.mnrr 0.659446 596.127845 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.799999
3 run2928.mnrr 0.657151 596.127845 3.500000 0.000750 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
4 run2880.mnrr 0.619784 596.127845 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
5 run2884.mnrr 0.609788 596.127845 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 1.000000 1.200000
Sorting by cArea...
Top 5 entries:
i file cArea avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0191.mnrr 795.000000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963
2 run0187.mnrr 666.250000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.000000 3.600050
3 run0379.mnrr 659.250000 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.000000 3.600046
4 run0959.mnrr 647.500000 494.557565 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599955
5 run0183.mnrr 643.250000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 0.750000 3.599998
Bottom 5 entries:
i file cArea avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0600.mnrr 205.000000 433.661987 3.500000 0.000500 1200.000000 0.750000 1.200000
2 run0576.mnrr 204.500000 433.661987 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
3 run2112.mnrr 204.000000 548.391695 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
4 run2928.mnrr 204.000000 596.127845 3.500000 0.000750 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
5 run2880.mnrr 200.500000 596.127845 3.500000 0.000500 800.000000 0.750000 1.200000
Two near-average runs are:
length: min=121111.733427, max=245477.926265, mean=164197.810949, std=18801.315324
erate: min=0.609788, max=10.922526, mean=2.045091, std=1.106808
21 entries within 0.100000 stds of mean length and erate:
i file length erate avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0093.mnrr 165978.351001 1.961223 433.661987 2.750000 0.000750 1400.000000 1.250000 1.800004
2 run0137.mnrr 163693.819152 2.067125 433.661987 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 1.000000 1.799998
3 run0373.mnrr 164232.258206 2.072935 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1400.000000 0.750000 1.799998
4 run0949.mnrr 162543.981306 2.074946 494.557565 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 0.750000 1.800001
5 run1042.mnrr 162556.591619 2.051317 494.557565 3.000000 0.000750 1200.000000 1.250000 2.399997
6 run1077.mnrr 163838.353242 1.982914 494.557565 3.000000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.250000 1.800002
7 run1109.mnrr 165578.722902 2.085901 494.557565 3.000000 0.001250 800.000000 1.000000 1.799998
8 run1179.mnrr 162506.110740 2.116560 494.557565 3.250000 0.000500 1200.000000 0.750000 3.599994
9 run1203.mnrr 162769.984850 2.018962 494.557565 3.250000 0.000750 800.000000 0.750000 3.600005
10 run1313.mnrr 165318.164738 2.002006 494.557565 3.250000 0.001250 1000.000000 1.000000 1.799998
...
Here is the final coverage and erosion for the Circumferential Speed runs:
Here are some extreme selections from the CS database (longest and shortest, longest and shortest including cutoffs, highest and lowest erosion rates, and greatest and least area coverage):
Loading from runs.rsq
540 entries read
Sorting by length...
Top 5 entries:
i file length avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5061.mnrr 241664.023926 433.661987 3.000000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 1.799976
2 run5029.mnrr 235876.747113 433.661987 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 0.750000 2.399991
3 run5154.mnrr 229563.323450 494.557565 2.750000 0.001000 1200.000000 0.750000 1.800008
4 run5217.mnrr 229438.040702 494.557565 3.250000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.800011
5 run5163.mnrr 229191.817973 494.557565 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 0.750000 1.800006
Bottom 5 entries:
i file length avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5463.mnrr 146383.265702 596.127845 3.000000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.000000 1.800024
2 run5427.mnrr 144649.148812 596.127845 2.750000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.000000 1.799995
3 run5446.mnrr 142953.297626 596.127845 3.000000 0.001000 800.000000 1.000000 2.399978
4 run5365.mnrr 141156.906170 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.000000 2.399981
5 run5302.mnrr 136861.301604 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 1.000000 2.400005
Sorting by totalLength...
Top 5 entries:
i file totalLength avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5125.mnrr 983425.118468 433.661987 3.500000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.250000 2.400018
2 run5134.mnrr 978498.984176 433.661987 3.500000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 2.399982
3 run5008.mnrr 978112.313243 433.661987 2.750000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 2.399987
4 run5017.mnrr 973867.707984 433.661987 2.750000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.250000 2.400012
5 run5089.mnrr 968416.290172 433.661987 3.250000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.250000 2.400016
Bottom 5 entries:
i file totalLength avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5504.mnrr 177873.564453 596.127845 3.250000 0.001000 1400.000000 0.750000 1.200006
2 run5459.mnrr 177852.215155 596.127845 3.000000 0.001000 1200.000000 0.750000 1.200001
3 run5522.mnrr 177852.215120 596.127845 3.500000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.200001
4 run5486.mnrr 177848.909939 596.127845 3.250000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.200004
5 run5477.mnrr 177844.516502 596.127845 3.250000 0.001000 800.000000 0.750000 1.200001
Sorting by erate...
Top 5 entries:
i file erate avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5125.mnrr 7.129977 433.661987 3.500000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.250000 2.400018
2 run5098.mnrr 6.944018 433.661987 3.250000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 2.400020
3 run5089.mnrr 6.879741 433.661987 3.250000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.250000 2.400016
4 run5062.mnrr 6.784955 433.661987 3.000000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 2.400010
5 run5044.mnrr 6.664453 433.661987 3.000000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 2.400001
Bottom 5 entries:
i file erate avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5270.mnrr 1.597992 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 800.000000 0.750000 1.199998
2 run5333.mnrr 1.597952 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 1400.000000 0.750000 1.199998
3 run5387.mnrr 1.597938 548.391695 3.500000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.199998
4 run5315.mnrr 1.597738 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.200003
5 run5351.mnrr 1.597547 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.200000
Sorting by cArea...
Top 5 entries:
i file cArea avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5278.mnrr 615.750000 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 2.399979
2 run5350.mnrr 615.750000 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 2.399968
3 run5314.mnrr 611.500000 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 800.000000 1.250000 2.399973
4 run5296.mnrr 611.000000 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 2.400005
5 run5368.mnrr 611.000000 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 2.400005
Bottom 5 entries:
i file cArea avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5531.mnrr 275.750000 596.127845 3.500000 0.001000 1200.000000 0.750000 1.199996
2 run5441.mnrr 275.500000 596.127845 3.000000 0.001000 800.000000 0.750000 1.199999
3 run5414.mnrr 275.250000 596.127845 2.750000 0.001000 1000.000000 0.750000 1.199998
4 run5432.mnrr 275.250000 596.127845 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 0.750000 1.199998
5 run5495.mnrr 275.250000 596.127845 3.250000 0.001000 1200.000000 0.750000 1.199998
Note in these cases that the longest, most active, and greatest area rivers are now distinct, and that the CS rivers do not suffer from the oscillation instability which is common to the wider, less active, JP rivers.
Two near-average runs are:
length: min=136861.301604, max=241664.023926, mean=185450.211953, std=19185.135621
erate: min=1.597547, max=7.129977, mean=3.682848, std=1.434533
11 entries within 0.100000 stds of mean length and erate:
i file length erate avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run5274.mnrr 184259.225592 3.729479 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 800.000000 1.000000 1.800004
2 run5292.mnrr 186698.921741 3.798892 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.000000 1.799997
3 run5301.mnrr 183999.965286 3.760422 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 1.000000 1.800003
4 run5310.mnrr 185276.831475 3.828120 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 800.000000 1.000000 1.800003
5 run5319.mnrr 185105.200638 3.775528 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.000000 1.799998
6 run5328.mnrr 186530.234307 3.769140 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.000000 1.800012
7 run5337.mnrr 183549.724821 3.720908 548.391695 3.000000 0.001000 1400.000000 1.000000 1.800004
8 run5355.mnrr 186094.193047 3.788126 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 1000.000000 1.000000 1.800014
9 run5364.mnrr 185959.635729 3.760175 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.000000 1.799993
10 run5373.mnrr 187231.061085 3.761057 548.391695 3.250000 0.001000 1400.000000 1.000000 1.800004
...
Using the 0.5 x 0.5 km coverage grid, various regions ('targets') can be defined corresponding to geographic areas on the maps and satellite images. For example, in the following plots 13 such areas are defined:
Elk Point Gayville Harold Davidson Field Jefferson Meckling Mission Hill Ponca state park Richland Vermillion shore Volin shore Westfield Yankton (east shore) Yankton (east along SD50)
Information about which rivers occupy grid cells contained in any of the targets at any time during the simulation can be accumulated by the database, and an 'average incursion' or 'probability of invasive danger' over the entire 100 year period can be calculated for each area:
Loading from runs.rsq
3072 entries read
Percent of target area occupied during simulation:
i file coverEP coverG coverHDF coverJ coverMe coverMi coverPSP coverR coverVe coverVo coverW coverYE coverYS
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0000.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.386667 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 run0001.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.546667 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.111111
3 run0002.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.666667 0.000000 0.294118 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.222222
4 run0003.mnrr 0.117647 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.906667 0.000000 0.235294 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.222222
5 run0004.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 0.200000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.413333 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.000000
6 run0005.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.626667 0.000000 0.058824 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.111111
7 run0006.mnrr 0.058824 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.773333 0.000000 0.411765 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.222222
8 run0007.mnrr 0.294118 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.986667 0.000000 0.294118 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.222222
9 run0008.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 0.800000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.493333 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
10 run0009.mnrr 0.000000 0.000000 0.800000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.680000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.222222
...
3063 run3062.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.920000 0.000000 0.705882 0.000000 0.000000 0.142857 0.000000
3064 run3063.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.973333 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.000000
3065 run3064.mnrr 0.352941 0.000000 0.400000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.626667 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.214286 0.000000
3066 run3065.mnrr 0.882353 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.893333 0.000000 0.529412 0.000000 0.000000 0.214286 0.000000
3067 run3066.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.973333 0.000000 0.764706 0.000000 0.000000 0.071429 0.000000
3068 run3067.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.750000 0.986667 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.142857 0.000000
3069 run3068.mnrr 0.529412 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.653333 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.214286 0.000000
3070 run3069.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.893333 0.000000 0.705882 0.000000 0.000000 0.285714 0.000000
3071 run3070.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.960000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.214286 0.000000
3072 run3071.mnrr 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.500000 0.986667 0.000000 0.941176 0.000000 0.000000 0.571429 0.277778
min: 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.306667 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
max: 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.666667 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
mean: 0.463886 0.002930 0.710417 0.000217 0.000000 0.036133 0.761714 0.000000 0.383195 0.000000 0.000000 0.132138 0.060366
Here is a plot showing the final coverage overlayed with the target areas:
(Click for larger image)
Note that 4 out of 13 targets are completely missed by the rivers. One of these is Meckling, right in the middle of the valley, although the coverage map shows that at least one river grazes this target to within 0.5 km. Searching for this river yields number 191 from above, which is also the longest and most active instance (and possibly the least realistic):
So, while Meckling escapes being flooded, it doesn't do so by much (and may offer some potential scenic riverside property investment opportunities :-) ). The database can also accumulate information about when targets are invaded, both by specific rivers and by all rivers on average:
Time rivers reach specific targets (years):
i file reachEP reachG reachHDF reachJ reachMe reachMi reachPSP reachR reachVe reachVo reachW reachYE reachYS
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0000.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000
2 run0001.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 70.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 90.000000
3 run0002.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 90.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 70.000000
4 run0003.mnrr 80.000000 -1.000000 40.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 100.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 50.000000
5 run0004.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 90.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 20.000000 -1.000000
6 run0005.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 100.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 20.000000 90.000000
7 run0006.mnrr 100.000000 -1.000000 50.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 80.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 60.000000
8 run0007.mnrr 70.000000 -1.000000 40.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 80.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 40.000000
9 run0008.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 80.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000
10 run0009.mnrr -1.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 20.000000 70.000000
...
3063 run3062.mnrr 50.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 80.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 -1.000000
3064 run3063.mnrr 30.000000 -1.000000 40.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 50.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 -1.000000
3065 run3064.mnrr 80.000000 -1.000000 100.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 30.000000 -1.000000
3066 run3065.mnrr 60.000000 -1.000000 70.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 90.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 20.000000 -1.000000
3067 run3066.mnrr 40.000000 -1.000000 50.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 70.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 -1.000000
3068 run3067.mnrr 30.000000 -1.000000 40.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 90.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 50.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 -1.000000
3069 run3068.mnrr 70.000000 -1.000000 90.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 20.000000 -1.000000
3070 run3069.mnrr 50.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 80.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 -1.000000
3071 run3070.mnrr 40.000000 -1.000000 50.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 -1.000000
3072 run3071.mnrr 30.000000 -1.000000 30.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 70.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 40.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 90.000000
min: 30.000000 80.000000 20.000000 100.000000 -1.000000 60.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 30.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 10.000000 30.000000
max: 100.000000 100.000000 100.000000 100.000000 -1.000000 100.000000 0.000000 -1.000000 100.000000 -1.000000 -1.000000 100.000000 100.000000
mean: 61.805444 91.000000 60.371257 100.000000 -1.000000 85.773810 0.000000 -1.000000 69.011387 -1.000000 -1.000000 17.254174 71.926864
A -1 signifies that the target is not reached in 100 years. Note that, as defined, Ponca state park is partially within the initial river, so that the incursion time is 0. However, the differential erosion of park grid area could be tracked over time, if desired. The database can also find (for example) all rivers that reach Mission Hill or Gayville, sort them by arrival time, and plot several examples that reach both targets:
Reaching Mission Hill (168):
i file coverMi reachMi avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0131.mnrr 0.500000 60.000000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001000 1200.000000 1.250000 3.599999
2 run0175.mnrr 0.500000 60.000000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1200.000000 1.000000 3.599956
3 run0179.mnrr 0.250000 60.000000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1200.000000 1.250000 3.600004
4 run0383.mnrr 1.000000 60.000000 433.661987 3.000000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599978
5 run0575.mnrr 0.500000 60.000000 433.661987 3.250000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.600006
...
Reaching Gayville (8):
i file coverG reachG avwidth0 depth diam flow sdist erate0
----- -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
1 run0191.mnrr 1.000000 80.000000 433.661987 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599963
2 run1727.mnrr 1.000000 80.000000 548.391695 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.600003
3 run2495.mnrr 1.000000 80.000000 596.127845 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599995
4 run0959.mnrr 1.000000 90.000000 494.557565 2.750000 0.001250 1400.000000 1.250000 3.599955
5 run1679.mnrr 1.000000 90.000000 548.391695 2.750000 0.001000 1400.000000 1.250000 3.600014
(Click for larger image)
I will continue working on these analyses and will post at least one more update before Nov 18. I am also working on a short public summary site that would allow people not associated with the project to become familiar quickly and easily without reading all the updates. November is the last month for 'real work', as December will be entirely devoted to the final report and website. If time in November permits, I would also like to work on some of the following: